EV Growth Isn’t Just a Rich-World Story
Oil optimists often claim the Global South will keep gasoline demand strong for decades. But real-world sales data tells a different story.
Developing nations are embracing EVs at a stunning pace, often outpacing adoption rates in wealthier countries.
Surging Adoption Across the Globe
China gets much of the spotlight, with plug-ins nearing half of all new car sales. Yet Vietnam is surging too—VinFast made up over a third of car sales in the first half of 2025.
Turkey’s fully electric share hit 13% in Q1, roughly double Spain’s and Australia’s. Indonesia’s 7.4% matched the US, while Malaysia hit 8.6%.
In countries that rely entirely on imports, the numbers are even higher. Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Djibouti saw over 75% of vehicle import value coming from EVs last year. Ethiopia and Laos hit 40% and 30% respectively. Across developing countries, plug-in sales rose 60% in 2024.
Price, Policy, and Practicality
Some of this momentum comes from tax breaks, tariff exemptions, and license fee waivers. Even if these incentives fade, falling battery prices and rising production volumes are keeping EVs competitive. In Thailand, EVs are already cheaper than gas cars.
Emerging markets also benefit from lower operating costs. Many EVs are used as taxis or delivery vehicles, where fuel savings quickly add up.
Economic and Energy Security
Oil and gas imports eat up to a third of total merchandise imports in nations like India and Pakistan. Switching a significant share of fleets to electric could strengthen national economies and reduce vulnerability to oil price swings. One study found that electrifying half of India’s car fleet could erase its persistent current account deficit.
The Road Ahead
Conventional cars will still burn fuel for years, but their share is shrinking. By 2030, EVs could displace over 5 million barrels of oil per day.
Emerging markets aren’t waiting for developed nations to lead. They’re seizing the EV advantage now—and that shift may permanently rewrite the global energy map.
